Data source: download milestones and number of reviews were compiled from Google Play. The cumulative number of reviews on Google Play are plotted against the right axis. The data for milestones, a linear extrapolation obtained from the milestones, and a more complex download model are plotted against the left axis. The graph shows the number of BBM downloads from the Google Play store, as well as models predicting future growth. Based on this trendline, we expect that BBM will hit 100M downloads on Jan 4, 2015. The graph below shows this extrapolation and estimates 90M installations as of Nov 17, 2014. We can easily get a rough estimate with a straight-line extrapolation of the download data from Google Play. The current number of BBM downloads is between 50M and 100M in the store, which gives a wide margin for error. However, BBM has shown steady growth over the months and it hit 50M downloads on Google Play on May 7, 2014. The initial exponential download pace was unsustainable over the long term. These numbers can help determine the value of BBM since platform size is an important metric to consider. How many downloads are there today? BlackBerry and Google won't say, but we can estimate. That is an incredible feat by any measure. When BlackBerry (BBRY) launched BBM on Android, it hit 1M, then 5M, then 10M downloads on the Google Play ( GOOG) ( GOOGL) store within 5 days of launch.
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